Best Lead Actress
It’s safe to say that Angelina Jolie won’t win for her performance in Changeling, especially since most think it’s a makeup nod for last year’s A Mighty Heart. Melissa Leo and Anne Hathaway had lots of early buzz for their performances in Frozen River and Rachel Getting Married, respectively, but the support has seemed to die down since right before the nominations came out. Look for both to duke it out at the Indie Spirits, but either winning the Oscar is not likely to happen. So that leaves Meryl Streep for her performance in Doubt and Kate Winslet for her performance in The Reader. Doubt scored with acting nominations for its main ensemble, but it is still unclear if voters are going to reward it with an actual win (even if Streep hasn’t won in over 25 years). But The Reader did perform much better than expected, which could clue us into some strong support for Winslet (especially since voters took the time to actually deem her lead eschewing the supporting campaign). Add that to her status as most losing actress in the current business (since Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr are both dead), she has all the makings of a Best Actress winner.
Final Predictions and Ranks:
1. Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Who Should Win: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky