Best Lead Actor
As nice it was to see Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) and Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) recognized, neither has the ability to topple the competition to land a surprise win. On the other hand, Frank Langella does. He’s in a best picture nominee (Frost/Nixon), he’s playing an ex-president (for which he won the Tony Award in the original theatrical production), he’s a film, stage and television veteran, and unlike the two frontrunners, there probably isn’t a person in Hollywood who has a grudge with him. In a weaker year, he would have walked away with it, but this year’s two frontrunners don’t look likely to give up this race to a third. Milk’s Sean Penn seems to be like the predictable choice for the win. He’s starring in a best picture nominee that only has a few realistic shots at a major win, he’s playing a real person (who, spoiler alert, dies), he’s picked up awards from most critic’s groups, as well as the Screen Actors Guild. Yet, there’s something about The Wrestler’s Mickey Rourke that seems irresistible to pass up on. It’s one hell of a comeback role and performance, one that’s been rewarded by both the Golden Globes and the British Academy. The reputations of both contenders doesn’t really hurt them since they’re both considered to be jerks in one way or another, but both have tried to tone it down on the campaign trail. Gun to my head, I’m going to have to say Rourke wins this, because it feels like that is the way the voters will go. Either way, it will be a great speech.
Final Predictions and Rank:
1. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2. Sean Penn, Milk
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Who Should Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon